KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 10 - It is testament to Malaysia's long drawn-out political instability that even Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's unambiguous pledge to retire in March is being met with scepticism. This was partly because he used ambiguous words during Wednesday's press conference when he announced his decision not to contest the party presidency in March, giving way to his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Razak.
By convention, the Umno president is also Malaysia's prime minister, provided that the Barisan Nasional is the government of the day.
"I hope it is Najib. I am using the word 'hope' because Najib has to contest party elections first and win the president's post. I hope he will win..." said Abdullah.
Those words sparked speculation that Najib's ride to the top may not be guaranteed, and all kinds of permutations are being tossed about.
But to most observers, it is a near foregone conclusion that Najib will take over. The blogs and online media have already switched their focus to him in the last few weeks.
Abdullah's final decision to step down will return some semblance of stability to Umno and Malaysia. A clear succession timetable with a fairly tight deadline will preclude destabilising political manoeuvres.
Then again, it is not necessarily the end of months of instability. The party's deputy presidency is now being fought over, and there is quiet agitation for PM Abdullah to quit earlier than in March - perhaps even by December.
But the second- and third-liners in Umno are hoping that Najib will now engineer a smooth election process that will unite and strengthen the party.
He is not expected to face a serious challenge for the presidency.
Kelantan prince Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah is still in the running, but it was always going to be an uphill task for him to secure the minimum number of nominations from the divisions in order to qualify as a candidate.
"Under the present scenario, it will be far harder," said Dr Zambry Abdul Kadir, a divisional chief from Perak.
There are now intense behind-the-scenes efforts to avert a battle for the party's deputy presidency - which, by convention, brings with it the deputy premiership of Malaysia.
The front-runner is International Trade and Industry Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, who is expected to announce his candidacy today. He appears to be the preferred choice of the Umno grassroots, and if the horse-trading pays off, he may win the post uncontested.
Former Selangor chief minister Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib has announced his candidacy, while the other possible contenders are Malacca Chief Minister Datuk Ali Rustam and young Johor MP Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamad.
Minister-in-charge of religion Datuk Ahmad Zahid Hamidi withdrew from the race yesterday.
Nur Jazlan told The Straits Times yesterday that he will continue to be in the race "until I am satisfied there is strong commitment from Najib and others about rejuvenating the party".
The biggest contests thus will be over the three vice-presidents' posts and 25 supreme council seats. But these are always hotly contested and rarely cause lasting rifts.
Observers believe that the party will unite behind Najib as he has been openly endorsed by Abdullah.
Umno has always coalesced behind those controlling the power levers, even after its most bitter fights in 1987 when Tengku Razaleigh narrowly lost the party presidency to Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, and in 1998 when Anwar Ibrahim was sacked.
"This time, I think the party will be more united that it has been in the last four to five years," said Zambry.
Certainly, the sense of a new leadership will buy time for Umno.
Opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who has repeatedly threatened to topple the BN government through defections, insists that the crossover MPs are still on his side. But it is also likely that they will want to see first what magic Najib can do.
Anwar has denied it but his ambition to become Malaysia's prime minister has slipped a little further away.
Malaysians woke up yesterday to a sense of the country moving into a new era. As Abdullah put it: "I'm the last of the Tun Razak generation in government. After this, Razak's son will lead the new government.'
Najib is the eldest son of Malaysia's second prime minister, Tun Abdul Razak Hussein.
There are mixed views about a Najib administration, with the general consensus being that it would be less open but more decisive than Abdullah's.
Political observers believe that Najib will have a stronger control of the economy, and hesitate less in tackling controversies relating to pro-Malay economic policies.
But they also believe that Dr Mahathir will have a stronger influence over Najib, with the result of a less tolerant administration.
"We expect it to be more decisive as well as more repressive, what with Dr Mahathir Mohamad's guiding hand featuring prominently," said political analyst Ong Kian Ming.
Najib can expect mud-slinging to intensify, now that he has a direct trek to the top.
Malaysia may be heading for a greatly welcomed stability but much depends on Najib's opening moves in the next few months.
Expectations are high, and the goodwill of wait-and-see can only last so long. - The Straits Times
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